Välkommen 2012! – Persiljas Hus
Persiljas Hus

Välkommen 2012!

Jag har goda känningar inför året som kommer! Samtidigt är jag, som annars är en ganska rationell människa, väldigt vidskeplig när det gäller att förutspå goda saker. Då går det åt helvete tror jag alltid. Så jag har goda känningar men är ändå ödmjuk inför året och de nya dagarna…det blir som det blir det är iallafall en sak som är klar.

Och det är ju inte hur man har det, utan hur man tar det som betyder något. Eller hur!

Nu tömmer jag kameran inför kvällens eskapader och lägger in en hel drös med foton och önskar alla ett bra kommande år!

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    Copyright All rights reserved.March soybeans were up 7 cents late in the overnight session to 1381 1/2 after posting a low of 1364 1/4. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were down almost 1% and China soybean futures were down 2.4%. Outside market forces are somewhat supportive with a weaker US dollar and a recovery in energy markets plus a positive tilt to equity markets overnight. The market saw continued weakness overnight and moved close to the level seen ahead of the USDA January 12th reports before catching support and moving higher on the day. Ideas that the Argentina crop has stabilized and might even improve plus talk that short-term demand for vegetable oils could ease during the Lunar New Year were seen as negative force to drive the market lower. Palm oil futures are sluggish this week even with talk that January palm oil production in Malaysia could be down 5-10%. Traders see continued good rains in Argentina through the middle of the week next week before the region might dry down again. Workers at the key export port of Rosario in Argentina indicated that they will block the entrance for loading ships and may also block the entrance for soybeans moving to crushing plants to six big companies. This could stop grain shipments and could slow or halt crushing at key plants located near the export port. The market was down sharply at the mid-session yesterday and lost another 10 cents late in the day as fund trader long liquidation selling was noted late in the day. The sharp sell-off in energy markets and weakness in equity markets soured the tone late in the day. Improving crop conditions in Argentina, a sharp break in crude oil and metal markets and a rally in the US dollar combined to spark fairly aggressive selling from speculators to drive the market sharply lower. The USDA confirmed a sale of 110,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China but indicated later in the morning that the sale was announced in error. The USDA also confirmed a sale of 2.74 million tonnes for China for the 2011/12 season which was thought to be the largest single-day sale on record. This is part of the sales announced from the trade delegation meetings last week. The USDA also confirmed a sale of 114,000 tonnes of US soybeans to Taiwan. Cash basis levels are said to be weak due to a slowdown in meal demand and weaker crush margins. Oil and meal were also under pressure into the mid-session with March meal at the lowest level since January 12th. Traders see increased talk from world politicians that more regulation may be needed to control food inflation as a potential negative force.March soybeans were down 1/2 cent late in the overnight session. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were up 0.4% overnight and China soybean futures were up 0.8%. Outside market forces were mixed to slightly supportive overnight with a weaker US dollar but also a weaker tone to energy markets. Old crop futures were under some pressure overnight on talk that the rally yesterday was overdone and that South America weather is improving. Traders will be monitoring the weekly export sales news and the monthly crush data this morning for signs of slowing demand resulting from recent higher prices. In addition, there is some concern that China might back away from imports during the Lunar New Year. While the ending stocks outlook calls for extreme tightness at the end of this season, traders are concerned that recent estimates which show declining, not expanding planted area for the coming year could leave the 2011/12 outlook extremely tight if there is a minor weather glitch this year. The soybean market recovered part of the sharp losses from Tuesday as renewed support for commodity markets in general offset more talk of improving crop conditions in Argentina and nearly ideal conditions in Brazil. Some private forecasters in Brazil are pushing up estimates for production this season. Soybean oil found solid support yesterday from strong gains in other food markets. Talk that Malaysia palm production could be down 5-10% in January and weather uncertainties ahead have supported the vegetable oil market. Soybeans followed wheat and corn higher yesterday to trade moderately higher on the session. Ideas that South America weather is improving right into the more critical pod-setting stage in Argentina was seen as a negative force, but this was offset by news that a strike at the key export port in Argentina could paralyze grain exports and dramatically slow the crushing pace. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of meal and oil, and the Rosario region moves about 80% of that nation’s product exports. Private exporters reported a sale of 227,000 tonnes of soybeans to China with 60,000 of the total for the 2010/11 season and the rest for 2011/12. The Argentina export port news helped support the product markets, and a colder forecast for the Midwest for next week was seen as a positive factor for meal demand, which was said to be sluggish recently. Eggs set into incubators last week was up 1% from last year, so traders see little evidence that feed demand will be dropping off significantly, with cattle prices near all-time highs and hog futures surging to new contract highs. Traders will monitor the weekly export sales report in the morning, with many traders looking for soybean sales near 700,000 tonnes from 915,800 tonnes last week. Traders look for the monthly Census Crush report to show December crush near 152 million bushels, compared with 154.99 million in November.March soybeans were up 5 cents overnight. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are closed for holiday. China soybean futures closed up 0.5%. Outside market forces look mostly positive with a new low for the move for the US dollar, but energy market weakness is an offset. The market is seeing solid support from international food prices pushing higher and specifically from the rally in the vegetable oil markets. Flooding in Malaysia has disrupted the flow of palm oil exports this week, and too much rain could lead to lower yield ahead. In addition, the dock workers’ strike in Argentina appears to be getting entrenched, as shipments are being delayed at the tail end of their marketing year. Argentina is the largest world exporter of soybean oil and meal. The Egyptian situation helped support sharp rallies in wheat, rice and milk yesterday, and end users of vegetable oils and other basic food commodities appear to be making a move to own or store a little more due to political unrest. November soybeans led the rally yesterday with talk that higher prices for competing planted area crops helping to spark new buying. The market found initial support from the rally in wheat, the continued port workers’ strike in Argentina and a very strong palm oil market. Flooding conditions in some plantations in Malaysia slowed movement and could tighten vegetable oil supply. The Argentina strike has apparently affected 18 different ports and crushing plants and is now seven days old. The China Commerce Ministry indicated that China may import 4.79 million tonnes of soybeans in January, which is up from its previous forecast of 4.55 million. February imports are expected near 2.73 million tonnes becvause the Lunar New Year is expected to slow movement. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at just 29.7 million bushels, which was well below trade expectations. This is down from 43.1 million last week, but it is still higher than the 20.2 million bushel needed each week to reach the USDA projection for the marketing year.March soybeans were down 1 cent late in the overnight session. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 0.6% ahead of a key export report. China soybean futures were up for the 4th session in a row, up 0.4% overnight. Outside market forces look slightly negative with a strong US dollar and weaker equity markets. Talk of the possibility of more cancelled sales of US soybeans to China, talk of a record Brazilian crop, continued good weather in South America and ideas that the soybean complex is overbought has helped pressure the market in recent days. There Brazilian harvest is expected to advance in the weeks just ahead, and there have been reports that early yields are coming in better than expected. Traders believe the crop is nearly 5% harvested. China imported 5.15 million tonnes in January, up 26% from last year and up from official estimates from last month of 4.8 million tonnes. The imports in December totaled 5.43 million tonnes. News from the weekly export sales report that China had cancelled purchases of near 262,000 tonnes of old crop US soybeans plus a weakening cash tone in the US plus a strong US dollar are seen as short-term negative forces. March soybeans closed 17 cents lower on the session Friday and 17 1/2 cents lower for the week. The lower close on the week after posting contract highs is considered a negative technical development by some traders. Nearly ideal weather for South America and weaker cash basis levels based on ideas that Brazil is getting more competitive with US soybeans helped to spark some long liquidation selling pressures early on Friday. A strong advance in corn helped to limit the downside trade. News that Egypt’ss shift in power will be ongoing helped support a move from lower to higher in wheat on Friday, and this helped lift soybeans off of their early lows. For this morning’s monthly NOPA crush report, traders are expecting the January soybean crush to come in slightly above 144 million bushels, down from 145.537 million bushels in December. Traders will also be reviewing baseline projections from the USDA early this week. These figures will give traders an indication of what the USDA was thinking in November about the supply/demand outlook for new crop soybeans. The USDA Outlook Forum later this month will give traders a more up-to-date look at the planting expectations as well as demand factors for the 2011/12 season. The Commitments of Traders reports as of February 8th for soybeans showed non-commercial traders were net long 188,608 contracts, an increase of 3,864 for the week. The buying trend was offset by a selling trend for commodity index traders. They reduced their net long position by 4,199 contracts for the week to 181,261. For meal, non-commercial traders were net long 47,034 contracts, a decrease of 2,199 contracts for the week. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 73,038 contracts, down 3,331 contracts. For oil, the ”combined” spec and fund net long position has hit a new record high level at 108,505 contracts. The non-commercial net long position also reached a new record level at 88,861 contracts after showing an increase of a whopping 10,016 contracts for the week. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 95,908 contracts, up 1,205 for the week.March soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were down 0.7%. Outside market forces look positive today with a weak US dollar and higher gold and energy markets. A continued positive supply outlook from Brazil has traders nervous over increasing supply forecasts. This, along with USDA news that major crop planted acreage in the US could jump a total of 10 million acres this year, helped to pressure the soybean complex yesterday and overnight. The Brazilian crop harvest is advancing under good growing conditions, and the Argentina crop has improved as well. The USDA baseline projections for the 2011/12 season suggest that planted acreage will be around 78 million acres, up 600,000 from last year. It appears that this was a bit higher than trade expectations. These projections were released as part of the budget process and were based on USDA forecasts as of November 2010. The USDA will update the projections at their Outlook Conference on February 24th and 25th. March soybeans opened 2 3/4 cents higher yesterday and closed 13 1/4 cents lower on the day and pushed down to the lowest level since January 31st. In addition to the talk of the advancing harvest in Brazil, the ideas that China may hvae shifted its buying to South America helped to spark some of the selling. The Commitment of Traders reports released late Friday showed an overbought condition, and this added to the negative tone. The NOPA crush report for January, released before the open yesterday, was considered somewhat supportive for soybeans but a bit negative for soybean oil. The January crush came in at 144.635 million bushels, which was higher than expected, but soybean oil stocks were also higher than expected at 3.098 billion pounds. Soybean weekly export inspections came in below the range of estimates at 33.8 million bushels. This was down from 44 million the previous week but still higher than the 18.4 million bushels needed each week to reach the USDA projection for the marketing year.March soybeans were up 11 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.3%. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 2.4% to a new 3-week low. Rumors that China may lower soybean import taxes to 1% from 3% and soybean oil import taxes to 5% from 9% helped drive US futures higher and helped pressure palm and soybean oil values in China overnight. Meanwhile, Argentine port workers reached a wage agreement with export companies overnight, thus avoiding a strike. While that helped relieve some anxiety, prices managed to post solid gains in the face of the agreement. Traders continue to adjust Brazil production forecasts higher. Argentina’s weather looks good next week with cooler temps and a return of some moisture after the warm and dry period this week. Soybeans closed slightly lower on the session yesterday and experienced a significant recovery from the early lows with help from a turn higher in soybean oil. The improving crop outlook for Brazil and Argentina plus a continued long liquidation trend from speculators helped drive the market sharply lower early, with March soybeans down to the lowest level since January 11th. Open interest was down just over 2,000 contracts with the sharp break on Tuesday. Traders see weekly export sales, to be released before the opening, near 550,000 tonnes, down from 971,100 tonnes last week. There is a concern for the old crop sales total after recent cancellations of sales from China.March soybeans were up 7 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were up 2.5% overnight to a new 3-week high, as flooding concerns in Malaysia persisted. China soybean futures are closed for holiday. Outside market forces look mixed with choppy to higher trade in the US dollar, weak metal markets and steady energy. The rally overnight pushed March soybeans to a new high, led by continued concerns for tightening vegetable oil supply, uncertainty over shipments out of Argentina and a continued tight ending stocks outlook in the US. Flooding remains an issue in Malaysia, as transportation has been an issue. Traders are also concerned that the flooding will increase chances of lower palm oil yields and lower than expected production. Argentina’s government ordered unions to call off the week long strike that has halted activity at grain ports and at key crushing facilities. The government wants to hold talks to resolve the pay dispute which has already halted loading of at least 45 ships. March soybeans broke out to the upside of the recent trading range yesterday to close sharply higher on the session and move into new contract highs. The continued decline in the US dollar during the session and bullish action in equity markets seemed to provide additional support for the late gains. March soybeans closed 73 3/4 cents up from last week’s lows. In addtion to the strike at Argentina ports and crushing plants, severe winter weather in the Midwest which might boost feed demand and another sharp break in the US dollar with a move to the lowest level since November 8th also lent support. News of increased export business for the old crop soybeans and oil was also considered a supportive factor. The USDA announced export sales of 110,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destination for the 2010/11 season and sales of 20,000 tonnes of soybean oil to China for the 2010/11 season. Cumulative export sales for soybean oil as of last week’s update have reached 85.3% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year, compared with the 5-year average of 37.8%. Only 4,900 tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA forecast for the year. December soybean oil pushed to a new contract high and is up as much as 6.6% in just 6 trading sessions. November soybeans pushed to a new high for the move. March meal saw solid gains on ideas that livestock will need extra feed to get through some harsh weather conditions. Argentina could receive a little more rain on Thursday and then dry out into early next week with cooler temperatures. Recent rains are seen as beneficial to the crop.March soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were down 2.8%. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 4.6%. Outside market forces appear somewhat supportive this morning with a weak US dollar and a firm tone to metal and energy markets. The market traded nearly 15 cents lower overnight but found some support and bounced slightly above yesterday’s close late in the session. The ten-day break of as much as $1.71 may have left the market oversold, and there is some talk that the break might spark some increased demand. Massive long liquidation selling pressures helped drive futures to limit-down yesterday for a 70 cent loss. The surge higher in energy markets sparked an initial knee-jerk positive influence in many agricultural markets, but even with a recovery in gold, grain markets remained under pressure. Corn and wheat continued to fall overnight, but the soybean market showed some stability. China’s equity markets were down sharply yesterday, and this sparked concerns that inflation will harden efforts by the Chinese to tighten policy further and slow the economy. News that China had rejected proposals to cut import tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil and continued good weather for the developing crops in South America helped to pressure prices. In addition, traders saw the Commitments-of-Traders reports from Friday as negative, as they showed an overbought condition. Trend-following fund traders (non-commercial less index funds) held a net long of 127,934 contracts on February 15th. This was down nearly 31,000 contracts for the week. The selling trend is seen as a bearish short-term factor. A sharp drop in open interest on Friday and off of the February 10th highs is seen as evidence of the long liquidation trend. Ideas that political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa could slow the global economy helped spark some of the long liquidation selling seen across a wide spectrum of markets. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at 40.974 million bushels. This was much higher than expected, but the focus of attention appears to be on risk-adverse trade. European traders indicated that Egypt bought 25,000 tonnes of soybean oil and 16,000 tonnes of sunflower oil. South Korea bought 45,000 tonnes of soybean meal overnight for June delivery.March soybeans were down 9 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were down 0.6%. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 1.7%. Outside market forces look weak as a continued surge in energy prices is prompting concerns for global economic growth. A lower dollar is a partial offset. Continued unrest in the Middle East and North Africa helped to pressure the market overnight as traders see a risk of slower global economic growth as a negative demand factor. In addition, speculative long liquidation continues. The USDA Outlook Forum begins today and last through tomorrow afternoon. The USDA left their planted acreage outlook at 78 million acres for the 2011 season which is up from 77.4 million this past year. Ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels which would be up slightly from 140 million this year but still considered tight ahead of the growing season. Production is expected at 3.345 billion bushels as compared with 3.329 billion last year. China’s Commerce ministry believes that China March soybean imports will remain low at just 3.16 million tonnes which would be the lowest in one year and below the February estimate of 3.17 million tonnes. A lack of follow-through selling on the early break yesterday on the move to the lowest level since December 13th helped to turn the market back up. The market found support throughout the session to see a push moderately higher on the day into the close and a close near the highs of a 37 1/4 cent range. Ideas that the recent break was too far, too fast plus support from a lower US dollar and continued strength in energy prices helped support the turn higher. Higher trade in gold added to the positive tone. A break of as much as $1.71 off of the February 9th highs helped support the idea that the market is in a short-term oversold condition. South Korea bought 45,000 tonnes of meal. Traders see improving crop conditions and higher trade estimates out of South America due to recent better weather. Demand news this morning was slow and the monthly Census crush report showed January soybeans crushed at just 149.17 million bushels which was more than 2 million bushels below expectations.March soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were down slightly overnight. Malaysia palm oil futures were up 1.7% overnight. Outside market forces look better today with ”less” fears of escalating tensions in North Africa and the Middle East. From an oversold condition, any sign that Middle East/North Africa tensions will not escalate will be seen as a positive factor for today. Traders see a risk of slower global economic growth as a negative demand factor if energy prices continue to climb. However, ideas that this idea is overblown and talk that China is an active buyer of South American soybeans on the break this week helped to support. The market put in the lows of the day in the first hour of trade yesterday before seeing a strong rally late in the day to take the March futures higher before closing down just a few cents lower on the session. While closing lower, March soybeans closed up about 18 cents off of the early lows. Traders noted continued long liquidation selling pressures early but the selling dried up late. Talk of slower China demand, slower crush demand and continued good weather for South America helped to pressure. For the USDA Outlook Conference, the USDA left US plantings at 78 million acres with ending stocks pegged at 160 million bushels from 140 million this year. Production was pegged at 3.345 billion bushels which would be the second highest on record. Exports were pegged at 1.575 billion bushels, also the second highest on record and down from the 1.59 billion forecast for this season. China imported 5.15 million tonnes of soybeans in January, up 26% from last year and down 5% from December. The Ministry of Commerce believes February imports will be 3.17 million tonnes and then 3.16 million in March. Soybean oil imports in January jumped to 160,283 tonnes, up 121% from last year as imports from Argentina resumed after the trade spat last year. Palm oil imports were 416,017 tonnes, down 23% from last year. The Census crush for January was just 149.17 million bushels which was more than 2 million bushels below expectations. Weakness in palm oil and a further sell-off in China soybeans added to the negative tone. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange revised their production estimate for soybeans to 48.8 million tonnes for the 2010/11 season, up from the previous estimate of 47.0 million tonnes. Traders see weekly export sales near 400,000 tonnes for the release before the opening. The USDA Outlook Forum speaker presentations today may be watched closely.May soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 1% overnight. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 1.2%. Outside market forces appeared mostly positive overnight with a weaker US dollar and a recovery in world equity markets. There were no deliveries against the March soybeans. Meal deliveries came in at 241 contracts, about as expected. Oil deliveries were a whopping 5,490 contracts, which was more than twice what was expected. The continued outlook for good crops out of South America with a higher than expected exportable surplus remains a negative factor short-term. While prices in China had a positive tilt overnight, traders remained concerned that the jump in energy prices would only harden the resolve of China officials to fight inflation at the expense of growth. China was an active buyer of South America old crop soybeans last week and even bought some US new crop. China plans to sell 100,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil from reserves this week. They have sold 773,000 tonnes of edible oils since October. South Korea bought 165,000 tonnes of meal. That country has reduced its import tariffs for meal, corn and 32 other items to ease inflationary concerns. March soybeans closed 47 1/4 cents higher on the session Friday and just 2 1/2 cents lower for the week. A slowdown in the aggressive fund selling pace of the previous days plus a surge higher in corn and wheat helped drive the market higher. Export sales were weak, but traders thought that China was getting more active last week. On top of the weekly sales totals, the USDA announced a sale of 165,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2011/12 season. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in below trade expectations at just 134,600 tonnes for the current marketing year and 118,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 252,600. Cumulative sales stand at 90.2% of the USDA forecast for 2010/11 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 80.9%. Old crop sales of 151,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Old crop meal sales came in at 108,300 metric tonnes versus 86,000 tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales were just 1,000 tonnes, which pushed cumulative sales to 86.6% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year versus a 5 year average of 47.1% sold for this time of the year. India is expected to process 12% more domestic oilseed crops this coming year, and this could trim edible oil imports by up to 5%. The Commitments of Traders reports as of February 22nd showed non-commercial traders were net long 132,903 contracts, a decrease of 24,909 contracts for the week. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 165,053 contracts, down 9,250 contracts for the week. The selling trend of the fund traders is seen as a short term negative force. For meal, non-commercial traders were net long 26,784 contracts, down 8,614 contracts in just one week. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 42,392 contracts, down 15,383 contracts for the week. The spec selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force. For soybean oil, non-Commercial traders were net long 49,458 contracts, a decrease of 15,287 contracts for the week, and nonreportable traders were net long 9,890 contracts, a decrease of 2,696. The selling trend is considered a short-term bearish force for bean oil as well.March soybeans were down 1/2 cent late in the overnight session. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are closed for the rest of the week, and China futures are also closed for holiday. Outside market forces look slightly negative, with a strong US dollar overnight and continued concerns with violence in Egypt. The market consolidated in a tight range overnight as it attempted to absorb the outlook for better crops in South America that is clashing with an inflationary undertone to agricultural commodity markets and very strong demand from China for soybeans and vegetable oils. The Brazil crushing industry association (ABIOVE) pegged Brazil’s crop this season at a record 68.8 million tonnes, which is up from their forecast in January of 67.2 million. Brazil’s largest soybean producing state (Mato Grosso), could see a record harvest of 19.2 million tonnes, which is up from a December forecast of 18.8 million tonnes, according to state Agriculture officials. The UN food price index hit a record high in January. This was the seventh straight monthly increase. Cash basis levels are steady with slow transportation for a bulk of the Midwest. The market closed moderately higher on the session yesterday into new contract highs, but the close was off from the early peak. A less peaceful situation in Egypt and news of at least a temporary end to the strike in Argentina helped offset the positive influences of higher vegetable oil prices and a surge in wheat and other agricultural markets. Meal was lower on the Argentina news, but oil was supported by a 2.5% jump in Malaysian palm oil. Argentina officials ordered unions to suspend the strike for 15 days and to negotiate their pay dispute, but there is still some uncertainty over the longer term whether Argentina will be a reliable source. A stronger US dollar emerged with the uncertainties in Egypt, and this helped spark some long liquidation selling. Strong export sales news and a surge higher in palm oil helped to support the market, with March soybeans posting a new contract high of 1452. The USDA announced that exporters sold 440,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for 2011/12 delivery. Traders see weekly sales totals for the pre-opening release today of around 3.6 million tonnes due to high purchases from China. Last week’s total was 940,300 tonnes last week. Iraq is tendering to buy 32,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and India is tendering for 1,500 tonnes of soybeans oil for immediate shipment. Bangladesh is tendering to buy 12,500 tonnes of soybean oil.March soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are closed for the holiday, and so are China futures. Outside market forces look quiet as financial markets await employment data today. The market inched lower overnight after seeing a firm tone early, as a lack of fresh news from Egypt and quiet outside markets helped spark some light selling. Asian traders are on holiday, but there is growing concern that the jump in short-term import demand, such as what was seen for wheat, could spread to the palm and soybean oil markets if food security issues heighten further. Flooding in Malaysia and the port strike in Argentina has helped increase short-term demand for vegetable oils. India is tendering to buy 21,000 tonnes of palm oil and 1,500 tonnes of soybean oil for immediate delivery. Iraq is tendering for 32,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, and Bangladesh is tendering for 12,500 tonnes of soybean oil. Thailand is apparently planning to buy 120,000 tonnes of crude palm oil to ease domestic cooking oil shortage. The soybean market closed moderately lower on the session yesterday and near the lows of the day, as long liquidation selling emerged late in the day to pressure. The rally into the mid-session pushed the market to a new contract high, but the market lacked follow-through buying support, and outside market factors turned sour. The strong US dollar and increased concerns over violence in Egypt helped push the market lower. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 1.032 million tonnes for old crop and 3.076 million for new crop for a total of 4.107 million tonnes, which was well above trade expectations. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 88.7% of the USDA forecast for the 2010/11 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 76.1% for this time of the year. Sales of just 158,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA old crop export forecast. Meal sales came in at 177,900 metric tonnes versus90,000 tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 5,000 metric tonnes, which was below trade expectations, as there was a cancellation of 30,700 tonnes to an unknown destination. Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 85.7% of the USDA forecast for 2010/11 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 41.5%. Sales of 5,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. While the Argentina strike is temporarily on hold as unions negotiate for higher wages for port workers, there is still uncertainty over the longer-term supply flow from Argentina, and this along with the outlook for drier weather over the next week may have helped provide some underlying support.March soybeans were up 8 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. Palm oil futures in Malaysia inched lower after first posting a new 3-year high in early trade. Outside market forces look mixed to positive as a firm US dollar is offset by higher equity and energy markets. While traders saw the improved South American weather and news that the port workers strike in Argentina has been put on hold as negative influences last week, the market managed to close 35 1/2 cents higher on the week. November soybeans gained 46 cents, as traders saw the need for higher prices to help spur increased planted area in the US this spring for soybeans. Flooding in Malaysia has been subsiding, but the palm oil market still managed a new 3-year high this morning. March soybeans closed 2 cents lower on the session Friday, and March soybean oil recovered from losses early in the day to close higher on the session. March meal closed lower for the third day in a row. The surge higher in the corn market helped support the market off of the lows, which helped soybeans recover nearly 11 cents off of the lows into the close. New crop November soybeans managed to close higher on the session and up more than 16 cents off of the lows, with more aggressive fund buying noted into the close. Ideas that crops in Brazil and Argentina are doing better plus talk of the overbought technical condition of the market helped spark long liquidation selling early. While traders see good demand for export for soybean oil, news that the Argentina strike is over for now plus poor domestic demand from December pushing up Census soybean oil stocks added to the negative tone. Cash basis levels were higher after a week of slow producer movement left end users bidding up prices in an attempt to spark some increased country movement. Gulf basis jumped to 70 cents over, to the highest level since December, as export demand remained strong. Stats Canada pegged canola stocks at the start of the year at 8.242 million tonnes, down 9.9% from last year and about as expected. The Commitments of Traders reports as of February 1st for soybeans showed non-commercial traders were net long 184,744 contracts, an increase of 13,805 contracts in just one week. The aggressive buying from fund traders is seen as a short-term positive force, but there are some concerns of an overbought condition with the net long getting close to the November record of 195,482 contracts. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 185,460 contracts, up 7,599 contracts for the week. For meal, non-commercial traders were net long 49,233 contracts, an increase of 9,609 contracts for the week. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 76,369 contracts, up a hefty 12,280 contracts for the week. For soybean oil, non-commercial traders were net long 78,845 contracts, an increase of 26,724 contracts for the week. The record high net long was in October at 87,489 contracts. The aggressive buying trend from the fund traders is seen as a positive short-term force.March soybeans were up 7 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Malaysia palm oil futures were up 0.5% to a new 3-year high. China futures were up 1.6%, and outside market forces looked quiet. Traders were awaiting the USDA supply/demand update for release ahead of the opening. New highs for palm oil overnight, news that China soybean futures were strong coming back from holiday, and the jump in wheat futures helped support the market overnight. The positive tilt to grains coupled with food security concerns continue to provide underlying support, but this has been offset recently by improving supply news from South America. Heavy rains this week in Argentina have eased any dryness concerns for now, even though there is a mostly dry forecast ahead. Brazilian officials pegged the soybean crop at a record 70.1 million tonnes, up from their January forecast of 68.55 million. A late rally in meal following an earlyier break to its lowest level since February 1st helped to support a strong close in the soybean complex yesterday. November soybeans pushed higher yesterday, as traders saw the need for soybeans to compete with other crops expanded planted area in the coming season. November soybeans posted a new high for the move overnight. A potential slowdown in the Chinese economy due to an interest rate hike was seen as a negative factor, especially for markets like soybeans, where China is the major importer on the world market. Talk of the overbought condition of the market, talk of higher/record Brazilian production for the upcoming harvest and talk of the hefty net long position of fund traders were all factors which led to the long liquidation selling following China’s news. Traders see higher exports as a reason to suspect lower ending stocks in the supply/demand update for this morning, with many traders looking for a decline of 5-10 million bushels from 140 million posted last month. Gulf basis levels were steady to higher with slow river movement and firm export tone helping to support. The late rally pulled March soybeans up near 20 cents from the day’s lows to close near the day’s highs.May soybeans were down 14 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were down 0.8% overnight and were down for the 4th session in a row. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 3.5% overnight, with some weak export news for early March and talk of rising production helping to pressure prices. Outside market forces were considered bearish overnight, with a weaker tone for equity markets, poor China trade numbers and a strong US dollar helping to pressure. There were 80 deliveries against the March soybeans overnight, the first of the delivery period. Meal deliveries came in at at 354 contracts and oil at 541. Outside market forces are quite negative this morning, and traders see the possibility of some negative news from the USDA’s supply/demand report this morning. The results this could influence trade, but after the sharp break of the past four trading sessions, it may take some very negative results to cause extended weakness. Traders see the possibility of a higher Brazil crop estimate and a possible adjustment lower in China import demand as reasons to suspect that US ending stocks might come in a little higher than last month. World ending stocks should also increase with traders looking for an increase of near 1 million tonnes from the 58.21 million posted in February. China imported just 2.32 million tonnes of soybeans in February, which was down 21% from last year and down 54.9% from January. January-February combined imports are at 7.45 million tonnes, up 6.1% from last year. Traders expect a recovery for March. The USDA attache from China believes that imports for the 2011/12 season will reach 58 million tonnes, up 5.5% from this season. An expanding livestock herd and continued growth in edible oil consumption are reasons for the increased imports. May soybeans closed sharply lower on the session yesterday and pushed to the lowest level since February 25th. Continued concerns that the Brazil and Argentina crop production estimates are increasing due to higher yield expectations provided a bearish influence on the market and helped spark another round of long liquidation. This pushed the market to the lowest level since March 1st. Liquidation ahead of the report was active, and the selling intensified on the move under Tuesday’s lows. Talk of more rain for Argentina’s crop for the coming weekend was also seen as a negative force. Brazil northern areas continue to see forecasts of hefty rain totals. This may be seen as a positive development, as unharvested soybeans may be at greater risk to excess moisture issues. The soybean basis at the Gulf was said to have jumped 5 cents to 80 cents over for spot delivery, as tight supply helped support the higher bids. Traders see weekly export sales for soybeans for release ahead of the opening near 550,000 tonnes.May soybeans were down 29 cents late in the overnight session. The Japan quake is yet another macroeconomic shock adding to concerns of potential unrest in Saudi Arabia today and slower growth from China and Spain, all of which have sparked aggressive long liquidation selling in agricultural markets overnight. China futures were down slightly (0.1%) overnight. This was the 5th straight decline. Malaysia palm oil futures were down sharply again overnight and are now down 8.1% for the week. Outside market forces are considered bearish as investors flee higher risk trades and seek safety. There were 76 deliveries against the March soybeans overnight to push the month to date total to 156. Meal deliveries totaled 190 contracts and oil 260. Markets reacted quickly to the potential global economic shock of the massive earthquake, driving soybeans and most other agricultural markets sharply lower. Ideas that China demand is slowing and that South American supply is growing added to the negative tone. May soybeans closed 6 1/2 cents higher on the session yesterday after trading in a 47 1/4 cent range. Commercial buyers were said to emerge on the sharp break yesterday, and this sparked a short covering trend by speculators that helped support the strong gains off of the lows. A very negative tone from outside market forces and a lack of fresh news from the USDA had sparked aggressive long liquidation selling earlier in the session. The sharp rally in the US dollar plus weakness in equity, energy and metal markets also helped drive the market lower early. However, news of some new export business and talk that some areas of Brazil are receiving too much rain, which could hit quality and yield, helped to spark a recovery bounce to moderately higher on the day. In the USDA report yesterday, US ending stocks were pegged at 140 million bushels, unchanged from last month. This left the stocks/usage ratio at its lowest since the 1965/66 season. World ending stocks were pegged at 58.3 million tonnes, up from 58.2 million reported last month but still down from 59 million tonnes for last year. Brazilian production was revised higher by 1.5 million tonnes to 70.00 million. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 412,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 57,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 470,000. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 92.0% of the USDA forecast for 2010/11 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 83.2%. Sales of 133,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales came in at 156,700 metric tonnes as compared with 83,000 metric tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales came in at 2,100 metric tonnes vs. 8,000 metric tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. On top of the weekly sales, private exporters reported export sales of 116,000 tonnes of soybeans to an unknown destination. Heavy rains for parts of Brazil so far this month plus forecasts for more may have helped support the market as well yesterday.May soybeans were up 5 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up slightly. Malaysia palm oil futures were up 2.6% overnight as traders saw increased demand for biodiesel due to higher energy prices. Outside market forces appeared somewhat positive, as world equity markets showed some strength and metal markets were higher. There were no deliveries against the March soybeans overnight. Meal deliveries came in at 241 contracts to bring the cumulative total to 482. Oil deliveries were 3,513 to bring the cumulative total to 9,003. The jump in soybean oil was the key to the bounce in soybeans overnight, as traders saw improving bio-diesel demand due to jump in gasoline and diesel prices from Middle East tensions. Ideas that the US balance sheet cannot afford too much extra demand over the next few months helped to provide some underlying support. The market managed to consolidate much of the surge higher in prices from late last week with talk that biodiesel demand could increase this year due to the reinstatement of tax credits in 2011 after their lapse in 2010. With the surge higher in cotton, traders are a bit concerned that corn and cotton are pulling potential spring acreage away from soybeans. The market closed moderately lower on the session yesterday despite strong gains in the other grains, a weaker US dollar and a higher stock market. A continued outlook for a hefty supply of Brazilian soybeans moving onto the world market and ideas that the rally on Friday was a bit overdone helped to pressure the market early. Outside market forces consisting of higher metal markets, a strong US stock market and a weaker US dollar failed to provide much support, and weakness in wheat and corn added to the negative tone early. Concerns with political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East helped to hold the market down. Traders expressed concern that too much rain in Brazil could slow the harvest there, but dry weather in Argentina had was seen as a reason the suspect an increase in their harvest pace. Traders noted that there was 9-mile backup at the loading facility at the key Paranagua port in Brazil despite the rains which was recognized as resulting from their record-size crop. Weekly export inspections released during the session yesterday, came in at 48.6 million bushels, well above trade expectations and above the 16.3 million bushel average needed each week to reach the USDA projection. Overnight, China sold 100,101 tonnes of rapeseed oil from reserves which was all that was offered. India is expected to process 12% more domestic oilseed crops this coming year, and this could trim their edible oil imports by 5%.May soybeans were down 15 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were down 0.3% overnight and were down for the 6th session in a row. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 0.86% and were down 8.1% last week. Outside market forces are considered mostly bearish this morning given the potential for a slower economy over the short term due to Japan’s disaster. However, the lower US dollar and a firm tone for gold was a partial offset to the weaker stock market activity overnight. There were 80 deliveries against the March soybeans overnight, 154 contracts against meal and 560 against soybean oil. Ideas that the global economy may take a short term hit due to the quake in Japan fed the long liquidation trend by speculators and helped to pressure the market overnight. Too much rain in parts of Brazil and the forecast for more rain this week has traders concerned about damage to unharvested soybeans, and there have been estimates floating around of 1.0-2.5 million tonnes being affected. The collapse in palm oil futures over the past week is seen as negative for soybeans. Traders see damage to agriculture operations in northern Japan as significant, which might slow import demand over the near-term. May soybeans closed 21 cents lower on the session Friday and down 79 1/2 cents for the week. The market saw a decent bounce off of the lows Friday but drifted back lower late in the day. Uncertainty over the impact of the massive quake in Japan helped to spark aggressive long liquidation selling. A little less concern over ”day of rage” issues helped to support the strong recovery off of the lows. Energy markets were lower over the weekend. While metal and stock markets saw solid gains on Friday off of early lows, grain markets failed to recover. May meal fell below the February lows to its lowest level since December 13. The Commitments of Traders reports as of March 8th showed non-commercial traders were net long 144,275 contracts, an increase of 13,047 contracts for the week. The buying trend is seen as a positive force. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 161,643 contracts, up 722. For meal, non-commercial traders were net long 21,102 contracts, a decrease of 1,831 for the week. For oil, non-commercial traders were net long 71,495 contracts, an increase of 6,302 contracts for the week. The spec buying trend in oil is also seen as a short-term bullish force. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 90,495 contracts, down 2,390 for the week. India’s vegoil imports in February came in at 549,881 tonnes, which was down 21.5% from last year. Indian oilseed output for the year ending September 2011 is expected to increase to 25.44 million tonnes, up 11.8% from the previous year. China plans to sell 100,000 tonnes of rapeseed from state reserves this week.May soybeans were down 12 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.8% overnight, which ended a streak of six down sessions in a row. Malaysia palm oil futures were up 1.4% overnight. Outside market forces are very negative this morning, with dangerous levels of radiation leaking from nuclear plants in Japan. There were 210 deliveries against the March soybeans overnight, 21 meal and 225 contracts of oil. Heavy and active long liquidation selling from fund traders was noted in overnight trade as the market moved from higher on the day to sharply lower on the session late in overnight action. Japanese news has taken on the full attention of traders, with a very negative view of the impact on the global economy and the selling is seen across a wide range of markets. Traders continue to monitor the situation, and while grain demand is likely to remain strong, a ”sell now and ask questions later” attitude has helped drive markets lower. Too much rain is becoming a bigger issue for the Brazilian crop, which has yet to be harvested in the north, and traders see continued heavy rains in the forecast for the next week. The market closed slightly higher on the session yesterday and up near the high end of a 25 cent range. May soybeans opened sharply lower on the session but managed to hold well above the lows from Friday, and the market ended with an inside trading session. Supply concerns for the Brazil harvest may have helped offset expectations for smaller demand from Japan, as traders see a temporary decline in import needs due to damaged ports, feed mills and meat processing facilities. Continued concerns with the global economic situation following macro events of the last week kept the market in a long liquidation mode early in the session, and slow demand news added to the negative tone. A recovery bounce in corn seemed to help support a late bounce. In addition, there is talk of significant quality problems in parts of northern Brazil for soybeans, with spoilage losses expected due to too much rain. In addition, there are reports that around 1,000 trucks are backed up at the second leading export port of Paranagua. The monthly NOPA report showed the soybean crush at just 124.88 million bushels for the month of February, which was about 6 million bushels below trade expectations. Weekly export inspections for soybeans came in at 32.9 million bushels, which was also below trade expectations but above the 15.1 million bushels necessary each week to reach the USDA export forecast for the season. South Korea seeks 150,000 tonnes of non-GMO soybeans for 2012 delivery. China sold 65,729 tonnes of rapeseed out of its planned sale of 100,000 tonnes from state reserves this week. China’s commerce ministry revised its projection for March soybean imports to 3.65 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 3.16 million. This compares to 4.01 million tonnes last year.May soybeans were up 28 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were down 0.5%. Malaysian palm oil futures were down as much as 3% overnight. Outside market forces look less bearish this morning with strength in metals and energy markets helping to offset a stronger US dollar. May soybeans fell as much as $1.54 1/2 in just eight trading sessions before bouncing overnight. Traders still see volatile trade ahead as the market adjusts to the short term setback in Japanese imports and to a slightly slower world economic view. The near panic selling of recent days has slowed, and ideas that the break was overdone helped to support the bounce overnight. In addition, traders see potential losses if the Brazil weather forecast remains wet. Both old and new crop futures were trading down the 70 cent limit late in the session yesterday as speculative long liquidation was active. The break drove the market to its lowest level since December 1st with traders believing that speculative long liquidation selling overwhelmed the scale-down buying from commercial traders. Meal basis levels were improving, and there was some talk of tightness for meal after the slow crush pace of last month. The aggressive selling pace of speculators has helped drive the market sharply lower, as increased uncertainty in Japan has caused investors to move out of equity markets and commodity markets and into cash. News of the radiation leak in Japan caused aggressive selling and the limit-down close yesterday. Weakness in energy markets added to the negative tone for the soybean oil market. News of a slowdown in the crush pace and a lack of news on China buying recently were also seen as negative forces. But along with significant skepticism that US producers will increase planted area given the surge in plantings for wheat, corn and cotton, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has indicated that their planted area to soybeans may fall 11% this year to make room for increases in other crops. South Korea bought 110,000 tonnes of meal overnight after tendering for 55,000. If the Japanese situation settles down, the trade focus is likely to shift to the Brazilian harvest and the March 31st planted acreage and stocks reports.May soybeans were up 18 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.8% overnight. Malaysia palm oil futures were down 0.27%. Outside market forces look positive this morning with a weak US dollar, higher energy prices and a positive tilt to equity markets. The market is beginning to stabilize after the recent collapse, and soybeans are receiving additional support from a poor weather outlook for getting the Brazil harvest completed and a general sense that soybeans may need to gain on corn values over the near term in order to secure more acres in the US. With a tight ending stocks outlook, old crop soybeans are also getting support from the idea that new demand needs to flow to South America and not the US, or stocks could tighten further. Northern Brazil look to receive more rain over the near term, which could cause further damage to the unharvested soybeans and will keep the harvest pace slow. While corn and to some extent wheat pushed lower on the session into the close yesterday, soybeans managed to hold on to solid gains. There was talk that crop losses in Brazil could be more significant if the forecast for wet weather in northern states remains intact. The market saw solid gains early in the session yesterday, but news from the EU energy commissioner suggesting that the Japanese situation was ”out of control” helped to spark a downside correction into the mid-session. However, ideas that the market was oversold after the recent sharp break lent support. A general perception that the commodity market liquidation selling may be mostly complete was also seen as a positive force. South Korea bought 110,000 tonnes of corn and 110,000 tonnes of meal. Weather news was mixed as traders see drier weather in southern Brazil and Argentina as favorable to harvest and continued rains in areas of northern Brazil as slowing harvest and causing some losses. Egyptian buyers purchased 40,000 tonnes of soybean oil and 16,000 tonnes of sunflower oil. News that China’s planted acreage for soybeans could drop by about 11% plus a private forecast for US planted area to come in below the current USDA estimate of 78 million acres were also seen as factors to support buying. Traders see soybean weekly export sales, to be released before the open today, near 400,000 tonnes.May soybeans were up 6 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.4% overnight. Malaysia palm oil futures were down slightly overnight (26 lower). Outside market forces look positive this morning with solid gains in equity markets overnight and higher metal and energy markets. With an Argentine truck drivers set to go out on strike today and uncertainty over its impact on grain shipments, a positive tilt to outside market forces was enough to provide support to soybean prices overnight. The market looks to start the week higher, as uncertainty on the crop size in Brazil is also in question. The weather forecast for more rains in northern Brazil growing areas this week has helped provide some underlying support, as too much moisture is causing traders to lower production expectations. However, weather looks beneficial for southern Brail and Argentina. May soybeans closed 27 1/4 cents higher on the session on Friday and up 28 cents for the week. The market saw a volatile trading session with a big range with meal seeing strong gains on the session. Argentina truck drivers have called for a strike today and transport workers (which includes port workers) could join the strike. This may not have much impact on the market unless the strike lasts. A private forecast for soybean planted area to come in at 75.269 million acres was seen as supportive on Friday, as the latest USDA Outlook Forum estimates called for soybean planted area at 78 million acres. Last year 77.4 million acres were planted. The USDA Outlook Forum’s supply/demand outlook showed ending stocks for the 2011/12 season at 160 million bushels, but if only 75.3 million acres are planted, ending stocks could slip to just 49 million bushels. The Commitments of Traders reports as of March 15th for soybeans showed non-commercial traders were net long 110,883 contracts, a decrease of 33,392 contracts for the week, and this was seen as an aggressive sell-off and a major shift in ownership from funds to commercials. The commercial trader was net short 74,541 contracts, a decrease of 39,626 contracts for the week. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 156,332 contracts, down 5,311 contracts for the week. The selling trend of the funds is seen as a short-term negative force. For meal, non-commercial traders were net long 17,015 contracts, a decrease of 4,087 for the week. Non-commercial and nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of 29,356 contracts, down 7,744 contracts for the week. This selling trend is also seen as a short-term negative force. For oil, non-commercial traders were net long 45,475 contracts, a decrease of 26,020 for the week. Nonreportable traders were net long 6,306 contracts, a decrease of 6,933 contracts. Again, the aggressive selling pace of speculators is seen as a short-term negative force. China confirmed a slow import pace in February of just 2.32 million tonnes, down 21% from last year. Rumors that China rejected a load of Brazil soybeans is seen as a possible supportive force and might lead to expectations for some additional US exports for the old crop season.May soybeans were up 14 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 1.8% overnight. Malaysia palm oil futures were up 1.2% overnight and were up more than 2% at times as higher energy prices lent support. Outside market forces appeared mostly positive with a lower US dollar and higher equity markets. There were no deliveries against the March soybeans overnight. Meal deliveries came in at 216 contracts with oil at 3,106. Too much rain in Brazil plus talk that Chinese producers may plant more corn and cotton and fewer soybeans this year helped to support the market overnight. The weaker US dollar and a perception that biodiesel demand will be strong due to rising energy prices has added to the positive tone. May soybeans closed 10 1/2 cents higher on the session yesterday with new crop soybeans gaining just 3 1/2 cents on the day. May closed near the high end of a 22 3/4 cent range. Talk of a slowdown in harvest in Brazil due to too much rain, a firm tone to the equity markets, and a bounce in palm oil lent support. However, a lack of new buying interest, ideas that Argentina’s harvest is picking up steam, and talk that Brazil yields will be high once drier weather allows for harvest helped to push the market lower into the mid-session. The move under Monday’s lows attracted increased selling from technical traders and added to the negative tone. Buyers emerged to support the market, and soybeans followed gold and energy prices higher instead of following the stock market lower. This was despite a bounce in the US dollar, which shifted from lower to higher as the day progressed. Another supprtive factor could be a potential delay in Brazil’s harvest due to recent heavy rains. The forecast calls for a the wet trend to continue. However the persistent rains have caused many analysts to raise their forecast for Brazil’s production this year. Traders also see a more active harvest pace in Argentina over the near term. Argentine tax inspectors raided the premises of 48 multinational grain exporters yesterday. This may have added to the support overnight, as commercial traders may have their confidence shaken. Traders are expecting Malaysian palm oil stocks as of the end of February to be at a 7-month low, but there is also talk that production is picking up in March.May soybeans were down 17 cents late in the overnight session. Futures in China were up 0.4%, and Malaysian palm oil futures were down 3.7%. Outside market forces looked somewhat positive with a weaker US dollar and quiet financial markets overnight, but many commodity markets appeared sluggish. Favorable weather in Malaysia has traders expecting higher production of palm oil in March, and this has helped drive the market sharply lower overnight. Ideas that China demand has slowed due to weak crush margins has contributed to the negative tone. China’s Commerce ministry has increased their soybean import forecast for March to 3.9 million tonnes, up from a previous estimate of 3.65 million. This would represent a 68% increase from February, when imports fell to their lowest monthly total since November 2008. Indonesia plans to cut its palm oil export tax for April to 22.5% from the current 25%. Nearby futures experienced choppy and two-sided trade yesterday, with talk of slower demand from China and mixed trade in the other grains helping to keep the trade choppy. However, November soybeans closed with solid gains on ideas that planted acreage may need to be higher than recent private forecasts indacated. A key US bank pegged planted acreage for soybeans at just 75.6 million acres, which is similar to a private forecast from Friday, and this provided solid support. Too much rain is still an issue for the northern soybean growing areas for Brazil, but traders see good weather for southern Brazil and Argentina as a partial offset. A turn down in corn and a continued long liquidation selling trend from fund traders helped to push the market sharply lower into the mid-session. Traders see poor profit margins for crushers in China as a negative factor. Weekly export inspection, released during the session yesterday, came in at 27.7 million bushels, which was below the range of estimates. Inspections need to average 14.5 million bushels each week to reach the USDA projection. Argentina released their first official crop estimate for the 2010/11 crop at 50 million tonnes, compared with the recent USDA estimate of 49.5 million.May soybeans were up 3 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.6% overnight, and Malaysian palm oil futures were down slightly. Out

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